SUMMARY: A somewhat experimental but fully operational earthquake and
tornado data evaluation program is now available to interested parties
around the world.

Posted by E.D.G. May 7, 2004
Posted to sci.geo.earthquakes and other Newsgroups
For responses posted to just one Newsgroup sci.geo.earthquakes would
probably be best

Newsgroup Readers: Please send copies of this report to earthquake
forecasting organizations or government agencies, research groups, and
researchers that you know about. Thanks.

A Perl computer language earthquake and tornado data evaluation
computer program can now be downloaded for free from the following Web site:
http://www.freewebz.com/eq-forecasting/301.html

It might take an hour or so to download the 313.zip file listed on
that Web page as the data access rate from that Web site can be rather slow.

People who would like to see examples of the type of data the program
generates can find quite a few examples on the following Web page.
http://www.freewebz.com/eq-forecasting/303.html

Theory information and explanations for how the program works can be
found on the following Web page. There is also a copy of the Perl language
data evaluation program source code stored there.
http://www.freewebz.com/eq-forecasting/302.html

Because a Perl computer language compiler has to be installed before
the program will run I am presently recommending that only moderately
experienced computer users or people who can get some help from an
experienced computer user try to run the program.

I suspect that for the foreseeable future this program could
represent about the only hope that many people around the world who are
threatened by earthquakes and perhaps tornados might have of receiving a
warning before one occurs near them.

There are other forecasting programs in existence. For example, the
radio wave detection system discussed at the following Web site appears to
me to have quite a bit of potential. I have English language translations
of some reports which discuss that system.
http://mdcb.nease.net/Mdcb.htm

However, from what I can tell, most of the existing technologies are
not presently available to people around the world because they are either
too expensive or are so complex that people would not know how to use them.
That appears to me to be the case for the following sun shadow based
forecasting procedure which is inexpensive but which requires some technical
expertise.
http://earthquake.itgo.com/today.htm

This new data evaluation computer program does not presently predict
earthquakes. Instead it is designed to help people determine where the
locations are where earthquake and perhaps tornado precursor signals are
being generated. Once they have that information they can then check the
area for other signs of an approaching earthquake such as large, fresh
cracks in building foundations, reports of recent unusual animal behavior,
reports of people in the area experiencing strong headaches, static on radio
transmissions, glowing lights on the horizon etc.

To use the program in its present form people need to download a free
Perl computer language compiler from a Web site listed on that 301.html Web
page. Then they need to extract the data evaluation program and support
files from the zip files listed on that 301.html Web page and store them in
one of their computer directories.

All of the files in the zip files are presently text files including
the one Perl program file. So they cannot contain the usual .exe type
viruses which people generally encounter. However I recommend that people
scan the zip files for viruses anyways before opening them.

At present there are five different types of format lines which can
be used to submit data such as warning signal times to the data evaluation
program. One of the easiest things to do is to copy data lines from the
main database file to the test data entry file, adjust the appropriate
settings in that file, and then instruct the program to begin a run. It
usually takes about 5 seconds to a minute to complete a run depending upon
the computer speed, how many data points are submitted, and how much of the
earthquake database file is used in the run. The main database file
contains records of more than 20,000 earthquakes going back to the beginning
of 1990 and more than 1500 warning signal times.

The following is a highly simplified explanation of how the program
determines where the location is that a precursor signal is being generated.

A powerful earthquake occurs at Location A when the sun is directly
above 10W longitude and the moon is directly above 30W longitude. Less than
an hour later a powerful earthquake occurs at Location B when the sun is
directly above 20W longitude and the moon is directly above 40W longitude.
That information for both of those earthquakes is stored in the program's
main database file.

Some time later a warning signal is detected. And people suspect
that it might be signaling that a powerful aftershock is approaching for
either Location A or B. When the time that the warning signal was detected
is checked with the data evaluation program it shows that the sun was
directly above 10W longitude and the moon was directly above 40W longitude
at that time.

10W 30W Subsolar and Sublunar point longitudes for the Location A
earthquake
20W 40W Subsolar and Sublunar point longitudes for the Location B
earthquake
10W 40W Subsolar and Sublunar point longitudes for the earthquake
warning signal

The sun longitude matched the Location A earthquake. And the moon
longitude matched the Location B earthquake. So, where is the program
proposing that the expected aftershock will most likely occur, Location A or
B?

Within the program are importance or "weight" factors which are given
to comparison tests such as those two. And just for the purposes of this
example I will say that those weight factors are set so that the moon
longitude is regarded as being 2.5 times as important to earthquake
triggering and warning signal generation processes as the sun longitude. So
when the program outputs the test results it would give that Location B
earthquake a probability rating of 100 and that Location A earthquake a
probability rating of 40. In other words, the program is proposing that the
expected aftershock is more likely to be for the Location B earthquake. It
presently does several dozen comparison tests like that for each data point
that it checks.

The program will probably work with a variety of earthquake and
tornado precursor signals. For example, many people around the world
occasionally "hear" a high frequency sound which is something like a "ping"
sound. It may last for just a few seconds to perhaps 30 seconds. Data
which I have collected from people living in different parts of the world
indicate to me that what they are hearing probably represents a biological
response to certain types of radio waves which are generated in or connected
with fault zone events before an earthquake. Those signals can be
duplicated fairly easily in the laboratory. The times when they are heard
can be entered into the program.

It is my opinion that this program has considerable potential as a
powerful research tool for studying earthquake triggering processes and
perhaps phenomena related to tornado formation.

I am presently searching for an organization which might be
interested in taking charge of program development efforts. Those efforts
would involve work with quite a few different sciences or technologies
including earthquake and tornado forecasting, geophysics, seismology,
celestial mechanics, space and atmospheric weather science, and computer
programming. Computer programmers around the world should be able to easily
add new data processing and display routines to the program. And some
organization would be needed to keep their efforts moving in the same
direction.

FINAL COMMENTS

It is my belief that this program has tremendous potential for the following
reasons.

*** It already works.

*** All that you need to run the program, use it for research, and do
program development work is a moderately powerful computer. And any
personal computer built in the last ten years would probably have sufficient
power. You don't need a laboratory full of expensive equipment and years of
specialized training. This means that both professional and amateur
researchers in every country should be able to work with it.

The information in this report represents expressions of personal opinion.

"edgrsprj" wrote in message link.net...
SUMMARY: A somewhat experimental but fully operational earthquake and
tornado data evaluation program is now available to interested parties
around the world.

Posted by E.D.G. May 7, 2004
Posted to sci.geo.earthquakes and other Newsgroups
For responses posted to just one Newsgroup sci.geo.earthquakes would
probably be best

Newsgroup Readers: Please send copies of this report to earthquake
forecasting organizations or government agencies, research groups, and
researchers that you know about. Thanks.

A Perl computer language earthquake and tornado data evaluation
computer program can now be downloaded for free from the following Web site:
http://www.freewebz.com/eq-forecasting/301.html

It might take an hour or so to download the 313.zip file listed on
that Web page as the data access rate from that Web site can be rather slow.

People who would like to see examples of the type of data the program
generates can find quite a few examples on the following Web page.
http://www.freewebz.com/eq-forecasting/303.html

Theory information and explanations for how the program works can be
found on the following Web page. There is also a copy of the Perl language
data evaluation program source code stored there.
http://www.freewebz.com/eq-forecasting/302.html

Because a Perl computer language compiler has to be installed before
the program will run I am presently recommending that only moderately
experienced computer users or people who can get some help from an
experienced computer user try to run the program.

I suspect that for the foreseeable future this program could
represent about the only hope that many people around the world who are
threatened by earthquakes and perhaps tornados might have of receiving a
warning before one occurs near them.

There are other forecasting programs in existence. For example, the
radio wave detection system discussed at the following Web site appears to
me to have quite a bit of potential. I have English language translations
of some reports which discuss that system.
http://mdcb.nease.net/Mdcb.htm

However, from what I can tell, most of the existing technologies are
not presently available to people around the world because they are either
too expensive or are so complex that people would not know how to use them.
That appears to me to be the case for the following sun shadow based
forecasting procedure which is inexpensive but which requires some technical
expertise.
http://earthquake.itgo.com/today.htm

This new data evaluation computer program does not presently predict
earthquakes. Instead it is designed to help people determine where the
locations are where earthquake and perhaps tornado precursor signals are
being generated. Once they have that information they can then check the
area for other signs of an approaching earthquake such as large, fresh
cracks in building foundations, reports of recent unusual animal behavior,
reports of people in the area experiencing strong headaches, static on radio
transmissions, glowing lights on the horizon etc.

To use the program in its present form people need to download a free
Perl computer language compiler from a Web site listed on that 301.html Web
page. Then they need to extract the data evaluation program and support
files from the zip files listed on that 301.html Web page and store them in
one of their computer directories.

All of the files in the zip files are presently text files including
the one Perl program file. So they cannot contain the usual .exe type
viruses which people generally encounter. However I recommend that people
scan the zip files for viruses anyways before opening them.

At present there are five different types of format lines which can
be used to submit data such as warning signal times to the data evaluation
program. One of the easiest things to do is to copy data lines from the
main database file to the test data entry file, adjust the appropriate
settings in that file, and then instruct the program to begin a run. It
usually takes about 5 seconds to a minute to complete a run depending upon
the computer speed, how many data points are submitted, and how much of the
earthquake database file is used in the run. The main database file
contains records of more than 20,000 earthquakes going back to the beginning
of 1990 and more than 1500 warning signal times.

The following is a highly simplified explanation of how the program
determines where the location is that a precursor signal is being generated.

A powerful earthquake occurs at Location A when the sun is directly
above 10W longitude and the moon is directly above 30W longitude. Less than
an hour later a powerful earthquake occurs at Location B when the sun is
directly above 20W longitude and the moon is directly above 40W longitude.
That information for both of those earthquakes is stored in the program's
main database file.

Some time later a warning signal is detected. And people suspect
that it might be signaling that a powerful aftershock is approaching for
either Location A or B. When the time that the warning signal was detected
is checked with the data evaluation program it shows that the sun was
directly above 10W longitude and the moon was directly above 40W longitude
at that time.

10W 30W Subsolar and Sublunar point longitudes for the Location A
earthquake
20W 40W Subsolar and Sublunar point longitudes for the Location B
earthquake
10W 40W Subsolar and Sublunar point longitudes for the earthquake
warning signal

The sun longitude matched the Location A earthquake. And the moon
longitude matched the Location B earthquake. So, where is the program
proposing that the expected aftershock will most likely occur, Location A or
B?

Within the program are importance or "weight" factors which are given
to comparison tests such as those two. And just for the purposes of this
example I will say that those weight factors are set so that the moon
longitude is regarded as being 2.5 times as important to earthquake
triggering and warning signal generation processes as the sun longitude. So
when the program outputs the test results it would give that Location B
earthquake a probability rating of 100 and that Location A earthquake a
probability rating of 40. In other words, the program is proposing that the
expected aftershock is more likely to be for the Location B earthquake. It
presently does several dozen comparison tests like that for each data point
that it checks.

The program will probably work with a variety of earthquake and
tornado precursor signals. For example, many people around the world
occasionally "hear" a high frequency sound which is something like a "ping"
sound. It may last for just a few seconds to perhaps 30 seconds. Data
which I have collected from people living in different parts of the world
indicate to me that what they are hearing probably represents a biological
response to certain types of radio waves which are generated in or connected
with fault zone events before an earthquake. Those signals can be
duplicated fairly easily in the laboratory. The times when they are heard
can be entered into the program.

It is my opinion that this program has considerable potential as a
powerful research tool for studying earthquake triggering processes and
perhaps phenomena related to tornado formation.

I am presently searching for an organization which might be
interested in taking charge of program development efforts. Those efforts
would involve work with quite a few different sciences or technologies
including earthquake and tornado forecasting, geophysics, seismology,
celestial mechanics, space and atmospheric weather science, and computer
programming. Computer programmers around the world should be able to easily
add new data processing and display routines to the program. And some
organization would be needed to keep their efforts moving in the same
direction.

FINAL COMMENTS

It is my belief that this program has tremendous potential for the following
reasons.

*** It already works.

*** All that you need to run the program, use it for research, and do
program development work is a moderately powerful computer. And any
personal computer built in the last ten years would probably have sufficient
power. You don't need a laboratory full of expensive equipment and years of
specialized training. This means that both professional and amateur
researchers in every country should be able to work with it.

The information in this report represents expressions of personal opinion.

These are my final comments.

It does not matter why institution or website you turn to,there is no
facility availible to discuss the stresses generated between constant
axial rotation and variable orbital motion in the context of plate
tectonics and by association Earthquakes.

A person who never gave gravitation a glance would at least
acknowledge that the axial and orbital motions of the Earth are
seperate and distinct,a reasonably interested man would acknowledge
that axial and orbital motions combined would generate the natural
unequal day but it is unforgivable as a race and representing our
civilisation that the rotation rate through 360 degrees is accepted as
the stellar circumpolar 23 hours 56 min 04 sec.

http://hypertextbook.com/facts/1999/JennyChen.shtml

The justification and acceptance of the 23 hour 56 min value is one
of the oddest decisions ever made,it combines axial and orbital motion
into one stellar circumpolar motion,this one -

http://ottawa.rasc.ca/pictures/pdelorme/polaris.jpg

I thought it a worthy endeavor to understand earthquakes as an
offshoot of plate tectonics but nobody has yet thought to consider
the stresses between constant axial rotation and variable orbital
motion,the reason consideration is forbidden I can trace back to a
single paragraph in Newton -

"Absolute time, in astronomy, is distinguished from relative, by the
equation or correlation of the vulgar time. For the natural days are
truly unequal, though they are commonly considered as equal and used
for a measure of time; astronomers correct this inequality for their
more accurate deducing of the celestial motions."

http://members.tripod.com/~gravitee/...tions.htm#time

When the jokers of the early 20th century decided to jettison the
connection between the natural unequal day and the constant 24 hour
day they jettisoned the ability to distinguish between constant axial
rotation and the variable orbital motion for the Equation of Time
equalises the orbital variation in order to facilitate the isolation
of axial rotation to a 24 hour constant by means of the natural noon
determination.

Maybe someday men will come to their senses.

These are my final comments.

Maybe someday men will come to their senses.


Well said. Perhaps they may make a start by not cross posting their
drivel to the same inumerable posts as the OP without good reason.

If you can't curtail your own you might consider snipping the bits of
the post you are replying to that are not as germaine as they might be.
I gather you have difficulties in this regard and don't wish to seem
censorious but, well....


--
Posted via Mailgate.ORG Server - http://www.Mailgate.ORG

"Oriel36" wrote in message
om...

The research that I myself can do on this is limited. But if I can get some
organization interested in taking charge of this effort then a project will
hopefully get started which involves coordinating celestial mechanics,
geophysics, and a number of other sciences. And there should be some
interesting and important discussions regarding positional relationships
between the sun, the moon, the Earth, the planets, gravitational and tidal
forces, and the locations where earthquakes are occurring. I believe that I
have already made the two crucially important discoveries needed to get the
project to work, one involving sun and moon gravity combinations, and the
other involving a type of earthquake triggering symmetry. And from this
point on the effort should involve "filling in the blanks" as the saying
goes.

May 9, 2004

As I said in the first posting, in my opinion that computer program
represents a powerful research tool. All you need is a computer. You don't
need any special measuring devices or even access to the Internet. Years of
important research can probably be done with the information stored in the
program's main data file. It contains records of more than 20,000
earthquakes and more than 1500 warning signals. And the data evaluation
program has routines which compare those warning signal data with earthquake
data, and/or earthquake data with earthquake data.

With the data comparison routines it is easy to see how some of the warning
signals appeared to be pointing to certain earthquakes in that data file.
And if more sophisticated data comparison routines are added to the main
program then they might enable program users to link a fairly large
percentage of the warning signals with earthquakes.

With the first example on that 303.html Web page the program was instructed
to see if there were any possible matches between the destructive February
24, 2004 earthquake in Morocco and other past destructive earthquakes. And
I believe that it showed that a number of recent destructive earthquakes
were probably triggered in the say way as the one in Morocco. That includes
the devastating December 26, 2003 earthquake in Bam, Iran. And this is
something that I have seen with other past destructive earthquakes. Ones
occurring considerable distances apart within perhaps a 6 month period of
time appeared to be triggered in the same manner.

What could be causing that to happen?

As important as that question might be, even after all of the years and
centuries that research has been done on earthquakes there is no one who
knows the answer to that question as far as I am aware.

It appears that now that the entire program is available in a downloadable
form, professional and amateur computer programmers are going to be
interested in doing some research and development work on it. And the
present challenge is to locate some organization interested in taking charge
of program development efforts. I myself do not have the resources need to
run such a research project involving computer programmers and researchers
around the world.

edgrsprj wrote:

May 9, 2004

As I said in the first posting, in my opinion that computer program
represents a powerful research tool. All you need is a computer. You don't
need any special measuring devices or even access to the Internet.

Better stick this one up, err I mean, in your database.
Date: Sun, 9 May 2004 04:06:48 -0600 (MDT)

2004/05/09 08:57 M 4.6 SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL, CALIF. Z= 4km 34.40N 120.03W

This information is provided by the USGS
National Earthquake Information Center.
(Address problems to: )

These parameters are preliminary and subject to revision.

A magnitude 4.6 earthquake IN SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL, CALIF. has occurred at:
34.40N 120.03W Depth 4km Sun May 9 08:57:17 2004 UTC

Time: Universal Time (UTC) Sun May 9 08:57:17 2004
Time Near Epicenter Sun May 9 01:57:17 2004
Eastern Daylight Time (EDT) Sun May 9 04:57:17 2004
Central Daylight Time (CDT) Sun May 9 03:57:17 2004
Mountain Daylight Time (MDT) Sun May 9 02:57:17 2004
Pacific Daylight Time (PDT) Sun May 9 01:57:17 2004
Alaska Daylight Time (ADT) Sun May 9 00:57:17 2004
Hawaii Standard Time (HST) Sat May 8 22:57:17 2004

Location with respect to nearby cities:
30 km (20 miles) W of Santa Barbara, California (pop 92,000)
45 km (30 miles) ESE of Lompoc, California (pop 41,000)
170 km (105 miles) WNW of Los Angeles, California
480 km (300 miles) SSE of SACRAMENTO, California

The location parameters for this earthquake were provided by:
PAS USGS/CalTech, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, USA

For maps, additional information, and subsequent updates,
please consult:
http://earthquake.usgs.gov/recenteqs...ci10006857.htm .

Flinn-Engdahl Region Number = 043

For the most significant earthquakes, information may also be
available from the USGS Earthquake Hazards Program home page at
http://earthquake.usgs.gov/ and the USGS home page at
http://www.usgs.gov/ .

You will continue to receive messages like this when
earthquakes occur that have magnitude 5.5 or greater
anywhere in the world OR 4.5 or greater in the contiguous
US, Hawaii, and Alaska (excluding the Aleutian Islands).

The subscription form for this service is located at:
http://earthquake.usgs.gov/products/..._services.html
If you do not wish to receive these messages, please visit
that site, select "bigquake," enter your Email address, and
select "Unsubscribe."


Please ignore occasional "bounce" messages that you may
receive from the automated mailing system. Unless all
messages bounce for a long time, the automated system
will not remove your address from this list. If that
should happen, just resubscribe.

Please address unresolved mailing list issues to:

--
U.S. Geological Survey -- Science for a Changing World

"edgrsprj" wrote in message ink.net...
May 9, 2004

As I said in the first posting, in my opinion that computer program
represents a powerful research tool. All you need is a computer. You don't
need any special measuring devices or even access to the Internet. Years of
important research can probably be done with the information stored in the
program's main data file. It contains records of more than 20,000
earthquakes and more than 1500 warning signals. And the data evaluation
program has routines which compare those warning signal data with earthquake
data, and/or earthquake data with earthquake data.

With the data comparison routines it is easy to see how some of the warning
signals appeared to be pointing to certain earthquakes in that data file.
And if more sophisticated data comparison routines are added to the main
program then they might enable program users to link a fairly large
percentage of the warning signals with earthquakes.

With the first example on that 303.html Web page the program was instructed
to see if there were any possible matches between the destructive February
24, 2004 earthquake in Morocco and other past destructive earthquakes. And
I believe that it showed that a number of recent destructive earthquakes
were probably triggered in the say way as the one in Morocco. That includes
the devastating December 26, 2003 earthquake in Bam, Iran. And this is
something that I have seen with other past destructive earthquakes. Ones
occurring considerable distances apart within perhaps a 6 month period of
time appeared to be triggered in the same manner.

What could be causing that to happen?

As important as that question might be, even after all of the years and
centuries that research has been done on earthquakes there is no one who
knows the answer to that question as far as I am aware.

It appears that now that the entire program is available in a downloadable
form, professional and amateur computer programmers are going to be
interested in doing some research and development work on it. And the
present challenge is to locate some organization interested in taking charge
of program development efforts. I myself do not have the resources need to
run such a research project involving computer programmers and researchers
around the world.

I have reviewed the thread created last year on the same topic - 'Moon
orbit - earthquake related question' and found that participants
lapsed quickly into the old chestnut - coincidence and Wormsley was
quick to draw attension to Crank.net even though you have always
indicated your work as an open sourse project rather than a theory.

Well established views register a new idea as an attack and re-route
it into crankdom or coincidence and even if this is unjustified the
effect is always the same,nothing gets done.A geophysicist would have
every reason to take the the Earth's motions, constant axial and
variable orbital as generating stress factors on the Earth's crust
and subsequently into the arena of plate tectonics/earthquakes but
this contemporary ommision is striking even if understandable.

Depending on how badly geophysicists wish to progress in comprehending
tectonic plate movement due to the motions of the Earth,the first
order of business should be to review how contemporary models on the
motions of the Earth,axial and orbital, are based on a sidereal view
which prohibits the distinction between axial rotation and orbital
motion.

All websites demonstrating the sidereal justification or the value
for the Earth's rotation through 360 degrees adhere to Newton's
erroneous statement that heliocentric coordinates and geocentric
coordinates are interchageable,the only justification for such a
statement would be the sidereal/isochronos format developed by Huygens
and Flamsteed but this justification fails spectacularly when you
attempt to include the difference between constant axial
rotation,variable orbital motion and its affects on the Earth's crust.




"PHÆNOMENON IV.
That the fixed stars being at rest, the periodic times of the five
primary planets, and (whether of the sun about the earth, or) of the
earth about the sun, are in the sesquiplicate proportion of their mean
distances from the sun.

This proportion, first observed by Kepler, is now received by all
astronomers; for the periodic times are the same, and the dimensions
of the orbits are the same, whether the sun revolves about the earth,
or the earth about the sun. And as to the measures of the periodic
times, all astronomers are agreed about them. But for the dimensions
of the orbits, Kepler and Bullialdus, above all others, have
determined them from observations with the greatest accuracy; and the
mean distances corresponding to the periodic times differ but
insensibly from those which they have assigned, and for the most part
fall in between them; as we may see from the following table."

http://members.tripod.com/~gravitee/phaenomena.htm

The tendency to drift between heliocentric and geocentric perspectives
such as considering the variation in the Earth's orbital motion and
then drawing attension to the Sun's position at sunrise/sunset or
another geocentric perspective produces discontinuity whereas the
reduction of the Earth's motions to their respective actual
motions,constant axial and variable orbital would generate greater
insights.If there is a correlation between Earthquakes and the Sun's
position it would have nothing to do with gravitation for all that is
happening is that the Earth is rotating rather than the Sun doing
anything hence some other unknown and little understood mechanism is
involved.

(Oriel36) wrote in message . com...
Well established views register a new idea as an attack and re-route
it into crankdom or coincidence and even if this is unjustified the
effect is always the same,nothing gets done.

No one has time to seriously read and respond to every amateur's idea
on Usenet. Have you looked at the number of such ideas lately? This
"edgrsprj" poster deliberately aggravated the problem by crossposting
his stuff to five different newsgroups. Please do not try to tell me
that it's okay to crosspost to five newsgroups, just not six. A lot
of stuff does not need to be posted to any newsgroups at all.