update on Chapter 9 of Sir Martin Rees's "Our Final Hour" Sir Martin
is the head of DAMTP I think? See also new message from Russia below.

Thanks Gary.

This just in:

#1

On Thursday, October 16, 2003, at 07:17 AM, Gary S. Bekkum wrote:


critical look at risk assessments for global catastrophes

http://www.arxiv.org/abs/hep-ph/0009204


Authors: Adrian Kent (DAMTP, University of Cambridge)
Comments: Some discussions extended in response to referee comments
Report-no: DAMTP-2000-105
Subj-class: High Energy Physics - Phenomenology; Physics and Society

Recent papers by Busza et al. (BJSW) and Dar et al. (DDH) argue that
astrophysical data can be used to establish small bounds on the risk of a
``killer strangelet'' catastrophe scenario in the RHIC and ALICE collider
experiments. DDH and other commentators (initially including BJSW) suggested
that these empirical bounds alone do give sufficient reassurance. This seems
unsupportable when the bounds are expressed in terms of expected cost -- a
good measure, according to standard risk analysis arguments. For example,
DDH's main bound, $p_{\rm catastrophe} 2 \times 10^{-8}$, implies only
that the expectation value of the number of deaths is bounded by 120. This
paper reappraises the DDH and BJSW risk bounds by comparing risk policy in
other areas. For example, it is noted that, even if highly risk tolerant
assumptions are made and no value is placed on the lives of future
generations, a catastrophe risk no higher than $\approx 10^{-15}$ per year
would be required for consistency with established policy for radiation
hazard risk minimization. It is concluded that the costs of small risks of
catastrophe have been significantly underestimated by BJSW (initially), by
DDH and by other commentators. Lessons for future policy are proposed.

------------------------------

#2 Message from Russia Oct 16, 2003

Dear Mr Sarfatti!
Was glad to receive this highly important message.
The problem of Chinese WMD is also ocupying attention of competent &
responsible people in Russia; - concerned with future of our national
security. Such concern has sufficient reason - as there are widely known
intense Chinese activities in Russia, aimed at legal and/or illegal
acquisition of Russian defence-oriented and/or double use technologies;
- especially those of Leading Edge level, including vacuum &
psychotronic technologies.

Chinese are behaving in Russia much bolder than in USA & other Western
countries (where they also try to get new military technologies); - as,
besides of higher corruptability of Russian officials (and poor starving
defence scientists & engineers: immediate owners of know-how, with whom
Chinese agents try to make drect deals when possible), there may exist a
measure of political support on part of former non-converted (if even
they'd offered some lip service to "democratization") Communists - which
are glad to support their "ideological comrades". (Perhaps, because of
this were hushed some legal actions undertaken in cases of most blatant
violations of laws governing exports of technologies having possible
military applications.)

As I've noted in my previous email, there are also Russian "democratic"
ideological sympathizers to China
- and also people, believed to be connected with "military masonic
elite" (people of this kind, - which could be regarded as Russian
counterparts of members of US Pentagon Meditation Club, - had
reintroduced in Russian Army General HQ seances of collective
meditation, periodically performed in f. USSR in '20s-'30s, until its
organizers, which were followers of Masonic/Rosicrucian Initiate
Nicholas Roerich, were killed by Stalinists in '37-'38), which have
their own complicated agenda in regard to China. (In this connection
there may be recalled injunction of A. Bailey: see on pp. 130-34 of "The
Externalization of the Hierarchy": "Russia will turn its attention
towards East and will effectuate there vast changes as far as Pacific".)

Perhaps, controlled leakage of Leading Edge research data might be most
feasible in current situation way to effectuate such changes. Here may
be recalled essentially similar situation with so-called "Soviet atomic
espionage" in USA during & after WWII; - which, as say some US experts
(see, eg, on pp. 368-69 of R. Vesco & D. Childres' "Man-made UFOs", AUP
Press, 1994), was not only tolerated but even covertly encouraged by top
US authorities (which allegedly belonged to then variant of mentioned by
you "Trotskyite/neocon cabal"; in "Pentagon Aliens" of W. Lyne they're
called "military masonic elite").

In fact, otherwise it'll be difficult to explain how guarded 24 hours a
day top US nuclear experts like Einstein, Oppenheimer, Fermi & others
could not only pass information to Soviet KGBeasts (which were under
observation of US intelligence, as those bloody thugs stood out against
more civilized background of scientific community where they moved) but
even enjoy services of KGB top-class whores (this allegedly did Einstein
- as was published in one of "Sci. Am." articles).
Reason for this was quite clear; - as it was said in "Man-made UFOs",
"USA could not wage multitrilion-dollar arms' race with itself". It
needed well-controlled "sparring partner" - and such partner was found
in Soviet "military masonic elite" (which was founded by Leon Trotsky -
which introduced Masonic 5-pointed star as symbol of Red Army: whose
colour corresponds to that of Crown of Ancient Lower Egypt - while white
colour of US Army 5-pointed star is that of Crown of Upper Egypt!),
which even Stalin could not totally exterminate.

As say some people, feeling "cold war nostalgy" (of whom there is a
considerable number among now jobless & starving members of f. Soviet
military-industrial-scientific complex), organizaton of "cold war" must
be regarded as supremely successful feat of global-scale social
engineering; - which allowed to proimote scientific & technological
progress with unprecedented in history speed (which might be critically
important for the survival of Earth, as without Cold War-created
nuclear/missile/computer technologies we couldn't defend our planet from
possible asteroid/comet impacts - which'll bring more devastation than
full-scale nuclear war!).
Responsible organizers, which had no wish to perish in "accidental
nuclear holocaust", took due precautions against quite possible
incidents; - having established a vastly ramified network of borth
secret & (semi)official contacts (which were mentioned on pp. 94-95 of
'97 edition of Ph. Corso Sr.'s book - and which allegedly helped to
defuse timely Caribbean crisis) . I may personally witness truth of Col.
Corso's statements in this area, as I myself had particpated - in humble
(I was just 22-25 years'-old at this time) but responsible role of
trusted interpreter/assistant - since 1968 to 1971 in sanctioned by
Politbureau confidential (but formally non-secret) meetings between top
Soviet psi-research experts under leadership of Dr. Sergeyev ("No. 1 in
entire East bloc", according to J. Alexander's '80s estimation) and
Western psi-explorers guided by Prof. J. G. Pratt ("No. 1 in USA",
according to the same source), who was then working on contract with
ONI. (Regretfully, now Prof. Pratt is also dead; - but my words might be
confirmed by still productively working in NY Maimonides Hospital Dr.
Montague Ullman, - with whom Dr. Sergeyev & me met exactly 35 years ago:
on 14-16 Oct '68 - I've well remembered this date as 14 Oct is my birthday.)

Let's hope that similar precautions are taken now in regard to
technology transmission to China (Russian experts believe that when USA
allows numerous "controlled technology leakages" to China, they also
take similar precautions - perhaps, members of Russian and American
"secret elite" even coordinate their activities in this area: cf. some
aspects of "US-USSR-China leakage plot", described in "Dunn's Conundrum"
by S. Lee; Sphere Books, 1986); - else living on this planet will become
very soon a very uncomfortable occupation.

Regretfully, I can only hope - as I've lost access to reliable sources
of information on secret Russo-Chinese transactions since death of my
respected teacher (in life as well as in science) Dr. Sergeyev (who had
good connections in military intelligence community); - which happened
on 29 Oct 1999: soon before end of "overpermissive" rule of Yeltsin
(KGB-educated Putin tries to put restrictions on sensitive activities of
military intelligence: long-time rival of KGB, as correctly noted Col.
Corso).

Many analysts here, concerned with problem of "exotic WMD", - which have
considerable "psychological warfare" skills but little serious
scientific training, - have no choice but to regard this problem from
their specific viewpoint: as another instrument of psychological
warfare; - which is much more handy than, say, use in the role of
instruments of intimidation & political coercion threats with nuclear
(and other "hard") weapons, as it can be used in "virtual format" (that
is, it can produce psychological impression - if not on experts, then on
gullible public opinion: this "democracy's soft underbelly" - but no
tangible proofs, incriminating its alleged users, can ever be found: cf.
situation with Iraqi WMD!).

First this term became publicized around 1984 - at the peak of alleged
Reagan's preparations to deliver pre-emptive nuclear strike to f. USSR
(see "Dunn's Conundrum") - by Soviet-sympathizing "left ecologist" J.
Schell (who employed the term "virtual nuclear weapons" in a slightly
different role).

At this critical for USSR time Soviet "influence agents" in the West
started coordinated campaign of psychological warfare against
governments of England & West Germany which allowed installation in
their countries of US first strike weapons: cruise missiles &
"Pershings-2"; - which "could fly in any selected window of Kremlin"
just few minutes after launch, so that elderly Soviet rulers will not
have time not only get to nuclear shelter but even to put on their
trousers. It was rumoured that compact nuclear charges were secretly
implanted by Soviet agents in key sensitive places of England & W.
Germany (possibly near government residences); - which'll be activted in
case of US nuclear attack on USSR: it was as impossible to determine, in
then real political situation, whether such rumours were false or true
as to know whether Schroedinger's Cat is alive or dead without opening
its box (which in case of "nuclear cat" will become political Box of
Pandora!). That can be called a most spectacular example of use of
"virtual nuclear weapons technology" - which, involving as little real
risk as possible, is failsafe: always some psychologically unstable
fraction of population will believe gladly in alarming news (like modern
ecoalarmists or believers in near Apocalypse); - and, if their
percentage (and especially mental coherence of their psi-fields: cf. TM
data on organization of collective meditations) will be high enough,
they might force their own governments to accede to Soviet demands -
without a need for the latter to move a finger!

F. Soviet ambassador in USA M. Dobrynin writes in his memoirs that
during 1983-4 Soviet intelligence had undertaken unprecedented in scale
operation, rying to detect signs of preparation to nuclear strike
against USSR - about possibility of which Andropov: suspected of being a
Mason got warnings through mysterious even for KGB channels.

Here it can be said that Soviet psi-warfare experts made their own use
out of popular in '50s in USA & other Western countries "Soviet nuclear
scare": Western propaganda has successfully enough intimidated its own
population with threat of "Soviet secret agents with nuclear suitcases"
(see, eg, F. Forsythe's "Fourth Protocol" - which was read with high
interest even by Mrs. Thatcher) - preparing thus fertile psychological
grounds for Western "nuclear protest movements".

Now such heavy & inelegantly crude instrument as "nuclear blackmail"
(even virtual) is relegated to such outsiders as "rogue states" and/or
"international terrorists'; - and members of "Inner Circle" (including
China and perhaps f. Iraq) are preferring to operate such moe handy
instrument as "(virtual) sychotronic blackmail" - which not only offers
lesser probability of dangerous accidents, but promises incomparably
greater rewards personally to its operators: which, almost without
exception, - as are
most members of international-level intellectual elite, - are dedicated
to the idea of Global Commonwealth of Intellectuals: some variant of old
idea of International Government of Scientists (publicized by
Masonic/Theosophic/Rosicrucian sources as "Global Spiritual Government
of Shamballa").
Any talk about psi-weapons does attract welcome interest (and, possibly,
even more welcome funds) to this problem; - which, in order to be widely
enough publicized, must necessarily have its own highly dedicated
adversaries (as its partisans simply cannot start hot enough controversy
among themselves!).
Never trusting anything to chance KGB had personally selected in Soviet
times "professional psi-(or UFO etc.)debunkers"; - which were
periodically activated, if there appeared a need to carry some action of
"psychotronic intimidation" of foreign governments. (The actual
intimidation "at close range" was performed by foreign colleagues of
Soviet psi-researchers (or rather their Masonic bosses) - which highly
benefited from government funding of explorations how to neutralize
Soviet psi-menace.)

Such system functioned before "perestroika" more or less smoothly &
efficiently as an Engine of Progress; - helping to maintain sufficiently
high but well-regulated level of "international psi-voltage", sufficient
for driving The Wheels of Progress with ever increasing speed. (Many of
most interesting works - especially in USSR - in such "exotic" areas as
vacuum explorations, non-local communication etc. will never be
undertaken without such "cold war engine"; - which became clear when
Soviet science collapsed after "catastroika". Of course, job-deprived
scientists eagerly wish to rebuild a similar - but, if possibly, having
more reliable character - mechanism for effectuating necessary
interaction between Science & Society; - believing that their US
colleagues, which (as they think) started global antiterrorist campaign
as a kind of substitute to Cold War, do also share their expectations.)

As says social synrgetics, - confirming empirical data of social
scientists of former ages, - dynamic stabilization of as complex system
as global community needs an input of "controlled chaos"; - perhaps,
even having format of "less-than-war" paramilitary operations in order
to prevent formation of large hidden pockets of destructive energies:
cf. prevention of destructive avalanches by properly timed preventive
explosions. There is deep wisdom in words of St. Paul: "when evryone
will speak only about Peace then disaster will befall them". So
realistically thinking political leaders must be concerned not with
Establishing of Paradise on Earth - which is a busyness for angels - but
with not allowing our planet to sink too deep into Hell: which,
according to all esoteric teachings, Earth actually is - recall that in
Bible Satan: Lord of Hell is called "Prince of This World"!

Naturally, a new kind of World Balance technologies, - now involving use
of data of Leading Edge research, - calls for a new kind of people to
carry through these policies; - and such people preferably must have a
good scientific education. (Here Mrs Lapayeva & her followers see
promise of their eventual victory - because old generation politicians
will be simply unable to communicate with their foreign counterparts at,
say, negotiations for limitation of psychotronic/genome arms' race. Such
negotiations, of course, will be best advertisement & promotion to
progress of these - and other - new supertechnologies, providing with
rewarding jobs large numbers of highly intelligent well-educated people:
the finest flower & best hope of Humankind.)

Their education must necessarily include also mind-expanding
technologies; - so that they might contain without difficulties
Machiavellian/Orwellian (see also Kautilya's "Arthashastra") "double
thinking" - which needs higher-dimensional psychobiocomputers. (In
higher-dimensional spaces it's quite natural for objects to move
simultaneously in different directions - as well as it's quite natural
for quantum computers to be simultaneously in several states:
present-day "postmodern approach" is an attempt to realize such "quantum
world vision".)

Here I can only solidarize with mentioned in G. Zukav's "Dancing Wu Li
masters" slogan of MIT (or perhaps SRI) Leading Edge physicists:
"Attention! Study of physics can expand your awareness!"; - recommending
future political leaders to study modern physics (or better mathematics)
- even if not too deeply, which may become addictive. I wish to thank
also you for your extensive informational exchange activities in the
area of high-tech weapons' politics; - which help scientists & political
activists of different countries to establish closer "psychic
entanglement", - which will be very helpful in process of formation of
necessary (if humankind wishes to survive) for sustaining even relative
peace (while allowing to promote Progress, which is often omitted by too
shrt-sighted proponents of Sustainable Development: but the world will
turn into worst hell if to deprive people from opportunity to grow)
International Government of Scientists: "realpolitik incarnation" of
Global Noospheric Brain/Mind of Teilard/Vernadsky."

Note: I wrote most of the original drafts of the physics parts of
"Dancing Wu Li Masters" and closely edited final versions of it with
Gary. I did not write the New Age spiritual and psychological content of
the book however. That was pure Gary. :-)

"I'd be glad to receive your feedback to this message.
I think you wouldn't object that I'd transmit some of your messages to
such my competent & responsible Leading Edge research colleagues as, for
example, Acad. Akimov, Acad. Shipov or Prof. Gariaev.

With best wishes, Sincerely yours Constantin I. Ivanenko"